EDITORIAL

One reason why the Bucharest mayor election is so important is the fact that the results will effect on the making of a future government, therefore a true apple of discord by the end of 2008 and the early 2009. In an indirect, but decisive manner, the one to be elected a general mayor of Bucharest can influence the odds of the PSD (Social-Democrat Party) or the PD-L (Democrat-Liberal Party) to get leadership over the Senate. The president of the Senate will be no. 2 in the state and he can even decide to change the score, which is 100% favorable to Traian Basescu right now. How can he? He can substitute Traian Basescu and propose a future PM. Sorin Oprescu's decision to run as candidate or not to will effect on the entire political cycle until a new PM settles in Victoria Palace. This scenario is sure to look fanciful. But I want to prove it isn't.

One correct idea to start from is that the results of Bucharest elections will have a major influence on the parliamentary elections. This time too Romanian society is split in adepts of the right represented by the PD-L and adepts of a left dominated by the PSD. The Liberal right center will be used just to consolidate one or the other dominating force. The Bucharest election results will greatly influence parliamentary elections and the score will decide from which party the president of the Senate is to come from.

Another correct idea is that, in its essence, the Constitution of Romania, allows the elected head of state to appoint the PM, who is to make the future government. Traian Basescu's decision as President is not triggered by the existence of parliamentary majority. In other words, he may appoint a fugure PM, even if the party the latter is in is a minority in the government, hence unable to proceed to alliances. And he will do it, despite his ebbing credibility of only 34%. In a previous editorial I proved that one consequence of the uninominal vote system is that the repeated invalidation of a government is now out of question. Not even in the opening of an electoral cycle can deputies and senators afford to put their mandates at risk, invalidate the government and cause early elections. Therefore any government will pass and Traian Basescu may as well propose anything, for he has got both the bread and the knife, no matter the Democrat-Liberals' election results.

But in case the presidential party fails to take over the Senate, one Social-Democrat is likely yo become a president of the Senate. And the PSD will consider the idea to suspend the President of Romania right after elections, claiming the President involved in the electoral campaign by breaking the Constitution and also making use of the little trust he was enjoying at the respective moment.

This would be the only scenario able to give power to the PSD. But it is possible only if the Liberal-Democrat candidate is not elected a mayor of Bucharest. Only such a failure can effect in so poor a score for the PD-L in the parliamentary elections that the party won't get leadership over the Senate. This is why doctor Sorin Oprescu's decision to run in elections or not is vital to the interests of the main political forces. His candidacy would split the electorate of the PSD in sides and cut significantly on the party's odds to win in Bucharest. So there may also follow a cut in the PSD potential to get in the parliamentary elections the score needed to have a PSD member appointed a president of the Senate. But Traian Basescu seems invincible so far.

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