< Imprimare >      ZIUA - ENGLISH - joi, 9 august 2007

EDITORIAL

Who will be Russia's ally?

One decade ago the answer to this question could be found due to the relations between the Russian Federation and NATO and the emergence of the Russia-NATO Council. But things are much more complicated now.

Right after the fall of communism there was released an analysis by a group of US researchers, claiming that Russia had ceased all claims to get status as a super-power, if not for good, at least for a long time. The arguments were both political and economic. The latter ones grounded the superficial theory on the dissolution of the Russian armed forces. The Russian troops were dismayed and lived on poor wages, their equipment was poor too and the heads were under threat to be fired. Russian troops seemed to be just a shadow of the force that had scared the West just a few years before. Such were the times when the Kremlin leaders got the red carpet unfolded ahead like a historical compensation, together with all the conventional honors meant to highlight Russia's entry to the Western powers club and recognition for the undeniable democratic changes ongoing in that country.

The Russian officials' view was based on an approach completely new as compared to that of the Soviet Union's leaders, and still the former officials held on to the same reference point: the super-power status. Talk about the military force ceased and was replaced by talk about the economic force. Infrastructure emerged very soon and from that moment on it allowed the European Union a high level of energy dependence on Russia. The new Kremlin leaders made way for huge investments and thus acquired remarkable industrial and economic capacity from all over the West and from the ex Soviet republic as well, paying special attention to energy and banking. After a long period of privatization under the conditions of wild market capitalism, the state took over a field as vital as energy.

As fast and unexpected for some Western and in particular American analysts, the Russian Federation spent huge funds on developing its military potential. To some people's stupefaction, the Russian Federation has now announced it possesses a military power comparable to the US one, even in terms like the anti-missile shield and the new ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and more.

It is just that, unlike the binary view of the Cold War, new stars have reached the super-power market. China is the first, India is the second and even Iran, due to its ability to mobilize some of the active anti-American forces in the Middle East. These states are the very new strategic partners of Russia. How far will this partnership go? Will it ever reach an alliance of the political-military kind, as a logical conclusion of the more and more complex initiatives between Russia and China? Do the recent supplies of military equipment and assistance agreements between Russia and Middle East countries shape a more complex move? There are voices who invoke a possible NATO-like organization with Russia as main power factor. It is very hard to imagine that it will be the reasonable solution. All these moves will rather favor the emergence of a new exclusive market of influence and military equipment sale.

And the answer to the question in the title may be anxiously simple: any country that would admit Russia's status as a super-power and the respective action area.

Cristian UNTEANU

Articol disponibil la adresa http://www.ziua.net/display.php?id=225026&data=2007-08-09