Externe

Roi Mandel Published: 07.01.08, 22:00 / Israel News


The West believes that Israel is aware of the magnitude of the Iranian nuclear threat and assumes that the Jewish state will bomb Iran, ex-IDF intelligence officer Yossi Kuperwasser told Ynet Tuesday.

Kuperwasser, the former head of the IDF's Research and Assessment Division, believes that the Pentagon source's assessment that Israel will likely strike in Iran by the end of the year shows that the West assumes Israel will do the dirty work for it.

"That way, in case of a global flare-up, Israel could be blamed," Kuperwasser says.

The former senior officer, who for many years dealt with Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, told Ynet the most problematic issue was Tehran's ability to produce industrial quantities of high-grade uranium.

"Within a year to a year and a half, the Iranians will have enough uranium for a nuclear bomb," Kuperwasser says. "This is also the American intelligence estimate, which at the time was harshly criticized, and rightfully so. As far as we know, the Iranians have not yet reached this capability…at the same time, they continue their research uninterrupted."


While the West has increasingly internalized the Iranian nuclear threat, the process has been too slow and insufficient, the former military officer says.

"The West realizes that this is an Iranian challenge to the existing world order, aiming for Islam to enjoy a different status," Kuperwasser says. "Finally people have woken up, but the question is whether officials in the US and Europe realize the gravity at this time. It looks as though everyone is trying to shift the responsibility to someone else, and they believe that ultimately, if nothing changes, Israel will do the job for the West."

Kuperwasser says the Iranians are continuing their nuclear project unabated, in the belief that nobody will stand in their way.

"Iran realizes that the West is sensitive to pain and money, and won't embark on an operation that would significantly boost oil prices," he says. "Every time the possibility of a military strike is raised, the Revolutionary Guard's commander speaks out and warns against the chaos. They believe that the likelihood of a strike is very low."

"In this poker game, the Iranians are leading at this time," Kuperwasser says. "The pressure should be boosted considerably, and it should be made clear that a military move will be carried out if needed…if the Iranians believe that the West is serious, they will think twice about whether it is worthwhile for them to continue."

ne-am plictisit de cind asteptam , ne ia somnu'-n fata televizorului bre, baaa!



La 2008-07-02 01:27:00, evreu mandru din israel a scris:

> Roi Mandel Published: 07.01.08, 22:00 / Israel News
>
>
> The West believes that Israel is aware of the magnitude of the Iranian
> nuclear threat and assumes that the Jewish state will bomb Iran,
> ex-IDF intelligence officer Yossi Kuperwasser told Ynet Tuesday.
>
> Kuperwasser, the former head of the IDF's Research and Assessment
> Division, believes that the Pentagon source's assessment that Israel
> will likely strike in Iran by the end of the year shows that the West
> assumes Israel will do the dirty work for it.
>
> "That way, in case of a global flare-up, Israel could be blamed,"
> Kuperwasser says.
>
> The former senior officer, who for many years dealt with Iran's
> efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, told Ynet the most problematic
> issue was Tehran's ability to produce industrial quantities of
> high-grade uranium.
>
> "Within a year to a year and a half, the Iranians will have enough
> uranium for a nuclear bomb," Kuperwasser says. "This is also the
> American intelligence estimate, which at the time was harshly
> criticized, and rightfully so. As far as we know, the Iranians have
> not yet reached this capability…at the same time, they continue
> their research uninterrupted."
>
>
> While the West has increasingly internalized the Iranian nuclear
> threat, the process has been too slow and insufficient, the former
> military officer says.
>
> "The West realizes that this is an Iranian challenge to the existing
> world order, aiming for Islam to enjoy a different status,"
> Kuperwasser says. "Finally people have woken up, but the question is
> whether officials in the US and Europe realize the gravity at this
> time. It looks as though everyone is trying to shift the
> responsibility to someone else, and they believe that ultimately, if
> nothing changes, Israel will do the job for the West."
>
> Kuperwasser says the Iranians are continuing their nuclear project
> unabated, in the belief that nobody will stand in their way.
>
> "Iran realizes that the West is sensitive to pain and money, and won't
> embark on an operation that would significantly boost oil prices," he
> says. "Every time the possibility of a military strike is raised, the
> Revolutionary Guard's commander speaks out and warns against the
> chaos. They believe that the likelihood of a strike is very low."
>
> "In this poker game, the Iranians are leading at this time,"
> Kuperwasser says. "The pressure should be boosted considerably, and it
> should be made clear that a military move will be carried out if
> needed…if the Iranians believe that the West is serious, they
> will think twice about whether it is worthwhile for them to continue."
>
>
>
>
>

Inca n-a demonstrat nimeni nimic. IAEA nu are nici o dovada ca Iranul produce materiale pentru bombe nucleare.

http://www.juancole.com/2008/07/iran-wars-and-rumors-of-war.html

There is no evidence that Iran is enriching uranium to weapons grade at all, much less that it is making enough highly-enriched uranium that it will be able to make a bomb in 2009.

You can't use low-enriched uranium to make a bomb. It has to be highly enriched. Iran--as far as anyone has proved--is only making the low-enriched kind, and from all accounts it isn't doing such a great job of that, either. If it made high-enriched uranium, that could be detected by the inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who regularly inspect Iran's facilities. I.e., it just isn't there and the idea that Iran could have enough material to make a bomb by next year is ridiculous. Now if it turned all its centrifuges to this task, then maybe it could achieve that result, though most experts think Iran's ability to enrich is still exaggerated. It could not highly enrich without creating atomic signatures detectable by the inspectors.

The IAEA says that there is no evidence--zilch, zero, nada-- that Iran has facilities for enriching to weapons grade or that it is trying to do so. See Jason Leopold's interview with Scott Ritter

The US National Intelligence Estimate last December came to the conclusion that Iran has done no weapons-related experiments since early 2003.

Moreover, as Ritter points out, Israel likely lacks the capacity to launch an air strike on Iran in which its pilots safely return to Israel.

Even if it had the capacity, according to Beirut's Daily Star, experts think it highly unlikely that Israel would launch such a strike, given the likely reprisals it would attract from Lebanon and in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Sy Hersh reports on US covert operations inside Iran, probably aimed at uncovering more about Iran's nuclear program. I don't know. Maybe that is a good thing. Like the inspectors in Iraq in winter 2003, they probably won't find anything because there is nothing to find. Either way, genuine human intelligence would be preferable to speculation. I just hope their inability to find anything is taken more seriously this time.

A wise, even divine, man once said that there will be wars and rumors of war. To which I say that the rumors are better than the wars.

The rumors, in any case, are war by another means, since they are being used by the US and Israel to put pressure on Iran to stop its enrichment program, a program that is perfectly legal according to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

That Israel, Pakistan and India flouted the NPT and actually did make bombs is never brought up when the US makes these charges against Iran, which allows regular inspections of its facilities, and against which there is no evidence of striving for a bomb.




La 2008-07-02 01:27:00, evreu mandru din israel a scris:

> Roi Mandel Published: 07.01.08, 22:00 / Israel News
>
>
> The West believes that Israel is aware of the magnitude of the Iranian
> nuclear threat and assumes that the Jewish state will bomb Iran,
> ex-IDF intelligence officer Yossi Kuperwasser told Ynet Tuesday.
>
> Kuperwasser, the former head of the IDF's Research and Assessment
> Division, believes that the Pentagon source's assessment that Israel
> will likely strike in Iran by the end of the year shows that the West
> assumes Israel will do the dirty work for it.
>
> "That way, in case of a global flare-up, Israel could be blamed,"
> Kuperwasser says.
>
> The former senior officer, who for many years dealt with Iran's
> efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, told Ynet the most problematic
> issue was Tehran's ability to produce industrial quantities of
> high-grade uranium.
>
> "Within a year to a year and a half, the Iranians will have enough
> uranium for a nuclear bomb," Kuperwasser says. "This is also the
> American intelligence estimate, which at the time was harshly
> criticized, and rightfully so. As far as we know, the Iranians have
> not yet reached this capability…at the same time, they continue
> their research uninterrupted."
>
>
> While the West has increasingly internalized the Iranian nuclear
> threat, the process has been too slow and insufficient, the former
> military officer says.
>
> "The West realizes that this is an Iranian challenge to the existing
> world order, aiming for Islam to enjoy a different status,"
> Kuperwasser says. "Finally people have woken up, but the question is
> whether officials in the US and Europe realize the gravity at this
> time. It looks as though everyone is trying to shift the
> responsibility to someone else, and they believe that ultimately, if
> nothing changes, Israel will do the job for the West."
>
> Kuperwasser says the Iranians are continuing their nuclear project
> unabated, in the belief that nobody will stand in their way.
>
> "Iran realizes that the West is sensitive to pain and money, and won't
> embark on an operation that would significantly boost oil prices," he
> says. "Every time the possibility of a military strike is raised, the
> Revolutionary Guard's commander speaks out and warns against the
> chaos. They believe that the likelihood of a strike is very low."
>
> "In this poker game, the Iranians are leading at this time,"
> Kuperwasser says. "The pressure should be boosted considerably, and it
> should be made clear that a military move will be carried out if
> needed…if the Iranians believe that the West is serious, they
> will think twice about whether it is worthwhile for them to continue."
>
>
>
>
>

Israelul are destula experienta,stie foarte bine ca nu e mare bai sa pacalesti inspectorii IAEA, la fel cum in anii 1960 i-au pacalit pe inspectorii americani care au venit sa inspecteze Dimona.

"When the United States intelligence community discovered the purpose of Dimona in the early 1960s, it demanded that Israel agree to international inspections. Israel agreed, but on a condition that US, rather than International Atomic Energy Agency, inspectors were used, and that Israel would receive advance notice of all inspections.

Some claim that because Israel knew the schedule of the inspectors' visits, it was able to hide the alleged purpose of the site (manufacturing of nuclear weapons) from the inspectors, by installing temporary false walls and other devices before each inspection. "

La 2008-07-02 09:54:53, Arcturus a scris:

> Inca n-a demonstrat nimeni nimic. IAEA nu are nici o dovada ca Iranul
> produce materiale pentru bombe nucleare.

Buna gluma ... inspectori americani impartiali in Israel :))

Pai pe aia i-au adus acolo de acoperire, ca sa nu stim ;) nici azi ca Israelul detine focoase nuculare.


La 2008-07-02 10:26:51, evreu mandru din israel a scris:

> Israelul are destula experienta,stie foarte bine ca nu e mare bai sa
> pacalesti inspectorii IAEA, la fel cum in anii 1960 i-au pacalit pe
> inspectorii americani care au venit sa inspecteze Dimona.
>
> "When the United States intelligence community discovered the purpose
> of Dimona in the early 1960s, it demanded that Israel agree to
> international inspections. Israel agreed, but on a condition that US,
> rather than International Atomic Energy Agency, inspectors were used,
> and that Israel would receive advance notice of all inspections.
>
> Some claim that because Israel knew the schedule of the inspectors'
> visits, it was able to hide the alleged purpose of the site
> (manufacturing of nuclear weapons) from the inspectors, by installing
> temporary false walls and other devices before each inspection. "
>
> La 2008-07-02 09:54:53, Arcturus a scris:
>
> > Inca n-a demonstrat nimeni nimic. IAEA nu are nici o dovada ca Iranul
> > produce materiale pentru bombe nucleare.
>
>