Adrian Nastase is the most useful opponent of Traian Basescu for next year’s presidential elections. No matter who gets to establish the government, if Adrian Nastase runas as representative of the PSD (Social-Democrat Party), Traian Basescu will feel no fear nd he will win. This is not only about the present opinion polls, but also about all the possible ways the situation can progress. Adrian Nastase is the political character easiest to attack, especially that he hasn’t done anything to protect his side. The attack may make use of issues from corruption up to the lack of change he proves. In the last three years he has done nothing to argue for a politicl project or to take a cause as shied for protection. On the contrary… Still it is strange enough that Adrian Nastase seemed protected, although looking preoccupied only with the ‘revenge’ for the defeated suffered because of Traian Basescu, who is ceaselessly assailing him. It has been some time since the President attacked him last and Adrian Nastase is starting to think that there is no more ammunition to be used against him. This is not true. My opinion is that Traian Basescu gets help from Traian Basescu in person simply because he makes that opponent easiest to deal with. But Ion Iliescu has already guessed that the PSD candidate may lose presidential elections. As skilled a politician as he is, Ion Iliescu has suggested other possible approaches the PSD may have to the presidency candidate, which would spare Adrian Nastase of another defeat. Given the context, it is obvious to any vigilant observer that Adrian Nastase’s ascent in the PSD fits Traian Basescu like a glove. First of all it is so because Traian Basescu defeated Adrian Nastase before. Secondly, there is the fact that the latter is easy to attack. Thirdly, according to all the competent observers, Adrian Nastase’s rise in the PSD is the symptom of a policy indebted to the past. Why does Traian Basescu need Adrian Nastase’s candidacy in the presidential elections? Because there are evaluations claiming that he may lose in favor of potential candidates no less visible today. And there are some reasons why Traian Basescu may lose too. The first reason is that he made mistakes: the pensions, the too simplistic approach to the fight against corruption, the countering of the system for which he has used ceaseless conflict as style. The second reason is the lack of a practical project and of medium and long term political approach. Traian Basescu has been a champion at making use of opportunities, but not a champion of achievements, which has got him as isolated as never before. And this isolation isn’t convincing enough any more. It is no longer being perceived as the delimitation between the good and the evil, between the good ones and the evil ones. The third reason is the fact that he is lacking a team, given his almost failed attempt to have control over his own party. Traian Basescu has got to take distance from some past or future events and some controversial characters who invoke his name because they have no personal, professional arguments, which is why they make one mistake after the other. If he wants to win, Traian Basescu will have to reinvent himself, to fetch something new, to gain new “depth” and identify a new goal, a new “enemy”. The reagent paper for the symbolical power the President is still enjoying will emerge soon. And we shall see if he can manage to impose his agenda on the debate for the parliamentary election campaign. If he succeeds, his party will become the skeleton of the future government, therefore able to regain a status such as the most powerful party in Romania. If he fails, the battle will go on…

Horia MIHALCESCU