Any hypothesis on the future government's structure starts from the certitude that Traian Basescu will appoint a PM from the PD-L (Democrat-Liberal Party), which he has mentioned in all his public statements. The head of state is convinced the PD-L will win in elections, even if getting a score disallowing the party to be the only political group represented in the government. His hopes come from the fact that polls rate the PD-L first. The PSD (Social-Democrat Party) is second, but at a considerable distance. Research emphasizes the party headed by Emil Boc may get some 30-40% of votes, in which case the PD-L would have to proceed to alliance in order to govern. And there is also the uninominal vote system as premier in Romanian politics, which may overthrow calculations. The willingness of UDMR The UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania) has supported all the governments after 1996, both right and left ones. The 7-8% of mandates entrusted to UDMR MPs counted a lot for the structure of the government. An alliance with the PD-L at the end of 2008 is likely also because the two groups are part of the same political family in Europe. Marko Bela is first of all preoccupied with finding a means to counter the Civic Magyar Party opposing the UDMR, since both these groups share the same electorate. The UDMR has claimed their permanent representation in the governing structures is because this is the only way the group can protect the Magyar community's interests. D.A Alliance refreshed without Calin Popescu Tariceanu When Calin Popescu Tariceanu is a PM no more, he is likely to lose leadership over the PNL too and then the PD-L will open doors for the Liberals. The Democrat-Liberals criticize not only the Liberals in generals, but also "Tariceanu's oil Liberals" in particular. Once without the man who betrayed the values of the D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance, the PNL will be fit for a new alliance with Emil Boc's party. On the other hand, those top PNL members now at loggerheads with Traian Basescu may be an obstacle in the way of such a new collaboration. Getting closer to PSD This is likely too, given the fact that in the PD-L status there is no more interdiction on collaboration with the PSD. Ion Iliescu and the Adrian Nastase group would be the main obstacle in such a case. But Traian Basescu may as well choose to go all by himself against all of them, if the PD-L gets 30% in elections and therefore it wouldn't be easy for this party to impose a PM from within. And one more possibility has emerged: the Democrat-Liberals may govern all by themselves, given the early elections threat. Still the uninominal vote, an objective President Basescu has been boasting on, may overturn his calculations.

Anca HRIBAN, Ovidiu BANCHES