The ZIUA prediction has confirmed 100% and even earlier than expected. The Democrat Party will be approaching the elections for the Parliament of Europe separately from the Liberals. The Democrat Party trusts its lucky star and is relying on polls and also on the engine Basescu can play, if he continues to behave like a president player. Can we take the breaking of the Alliance Protocol as imminent? How will the PNL (National Liberal Party) respond to the opposition's initiative to suspend the head of state and then dismiss him? Apparently, the Democrats' decision is both reasonable and innocent. After all, just as Emil Boc said, the Protocol of the D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance doesn't ask for common lists of candidates wishing to reach the Parliament of Europe. The document doesn't even mention it. The Democrat Party has been ceaselessly pushed from behind by Traian Basescu, a president who doesn't even hide the fact that he is a political partisan. To some extent he managed to play the adversary of the power very efficiently and skillfully. The Democrat Party has got high poll scores, significantly defeating the Liberals. It is true the latter haven't really cared to place orders for opinion polls or give financial support to some institutions in trouble at halfway through the electoral cycle. In blunter words, it is a time when market research institutes can be suspected of involvement in political tricks to favor their customers, because such institute employees are as hungry as wolves. Since there are no elections, poll results can't confront reality. It is just that this "paradise" will be lost in a fortnight. Research will have to reflect reality more and more so that the honor sense of some institutions shouldn't be compromised for good. But the PD is nevertheless encouraged by means of polls and the Democrats are in control of two important means: the Ministry of Justice which can give orders to prosecutors and thus blacken political adversaries, and the Interior ministry, organizer of elections. Had the Democrats asked the Liberals to place a certain number of candidates on the lists for future MEPs, even if a number disfavoring the Liberals themselves, there would have probably followed great fuss and refusal in the end. Therefore it was more practical for the Democrats to simply deny the Liberals. If I may make one more victorious prediction, the next step will be the PLD (Liberal Democrat Party) members joining the Democrats on the lists of candidates to become MEPs. The circle of the Liberals' main enemies will thus close: Basescu, the PLD and the PD. The opposition comes second. What should the Liberals do, given the circumstances? They have no choice but support the initiative to suspend the President, explicitly or tacitly. And then they will go for positive referendum results. The Liberals will stand one more change only if they get read of their main enemy, that is Traian Basescu. Therefore the breaking of the Alliance Protocol seems imminent, which may lead to a significant restructuring of the government or even to change. I think the countdown is over, even the one on Basescu is over, although he has kept on claiming that the modification of the referendum law be unconstitutional. Fear has now settled in Cotroceni Palace. But there are no clues showing the Liberals are enough prepared to get a good score in the elections for MEPs, unfortunately. And this is the first electoral barometer, the thermometer that can show the real state of political forces in 2007 and the destination they will be heading in 2008.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu