Current scenarios

Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"

Yesterday in my editorial I was noticing that Adrian Nastase's campaign was making no progress without Iliescu's powerful involvement. This remark has been very alarming for some. This is because Nastase has attained the point of fullest growth in relation to those electors he can attract. But things are the same for PSD (The Socialist - Democrat Party)+PUR (The Romanian Humanist Party) Union. Ion Iliescu as Nastase's election engine can make the latter be able to bring more votes to the party. This is absolutely necessary in a campaign whose results will depend on the way is organised. This is also shown in the IRECSON opinion poll as well as in the latest opinion poll by CURS. The latter's data is to be published today by the press. But I can refrain from commenting on the state president's attitude, although my commentary might seem mean. The state president will have to be careful not to alter the contents of Adrian Nastase's political message by making all sorts of shocking statements either hyper leftist and hyper populist or anti - reformist and anti - property. If the two voices of Nastase and Iliescu play on single tune on two different tones, first PSD and then Nastase will manage to win autumn election. But only if Iliescu is skilful enough to attract those left-oriented electors about to go extinct, but still numerous. But if Iliescu is defeated by the temptation to whip citizens with phrases contrasting to the reform initiated by Nastase, his involvement in the election campaign will be counter productive, especially that the elections about to come have got one more feature.

This is the first time that reserve players instead of real ones have reached the semi-finals on the last run. There are two red-tied candidates running for presidency. They are two socialists, in fact: Basescu and Nastase. None of them has had the special desire to candidate to presidency. On the contrary. In one way or another, each of them was forced by some circumstance r by the party to enter the competition for presidency. Whether we like it or not, whether they want it or not, they are in fact presidential reserve players, as real players are absent. But the candidates selected to run for the MP position are also reserve. I bet that no matter what happens, neither Tariceanu nor Geoana will get to be MP when the new Executive is made up. Last run arrangement will get MPs out of the hat. Or is this reserve circumstance a sign showing that anticipatory elections are to come? There is one more feature we can talk about. Dan Pavel noticed it in his editorial yesterday.

There is a strange tendency of bipolarity. Nastase's red-tied Social - Democrats are in the one side, although they have ruled according to a Liberal policy. The Social - Liberals from PNL (The National Liberal Party) - PD (The Democrat Party) Alliance, also red-tied, are on the other side. As for ruling, the latter won't be able to make us of a much different policy. In fact, both sides are left centre - oriented. The drama of the right orientation is that it is actually absent. And where is Dan Pavel wrong? Or where is Mr. Marian Petre Milut wrong? Today his violently scolding letter is published on the opinion page. They believe this is the fault of analysts in favour of - God forbid it! - bipolarity. This is false! We need a right -oriented alternative. But it is absent for the time being. We can encourage the Popular Alliance as well as PNTCD (the National Christian - Democrat Party). And even PNG (The New Generation Party), if Dan Pavel pleases so. And if we all plead for such parties, each of them might get 4%. That is 12% together. And none of then would make it to the Parliament. And all the votes of hundred thousand well-meaning citizens will be not only wasted, but worse. They would get distributed in favour of those managing to remain in confrontation. And no right adept would have the chance to express option. And given such circumstances, what can I tell them? All I can tell them is to vote for the eligible from the very beginning. And it four years' time, we 'll see about it. But only if the three parties get to work from January 2005 and are not asleep till 2008. Election scores are so tight that every vote matters. Even the votes of Ciuhandu, Milut or Becali.

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