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Current scenarios

Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"

Apart from the cold, almost irrelevant score of parliamentary elections, this is the day to learn the first real clues on the way political parties and groups of interest completed elections. Just after the first election tour and especially after the presidential one, it was time for political combinations that would favor one side or the other. As known, a coalition government with weak political support, based on a complicated algorithm, is the only hypothesis considered at present by D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance and PSD (the Social - Democrat Party), the two election winners. The center of this algorithm is either Nastase or Tariceanu. The former is fighting to death to win and fears his political career would come to an end, should he be defeated by Iliescu in the political battle for PSD. He is relying on the PSD group solidarity which is still present, and also on a series of alliances with leaders of UDMR (the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania) and PUR (the Romanian Humanist Party). As for Tariceanu, since he has got the opportunity to become PM, he is strugling to get to rule the government and administer the advantage obtained by the Alliance protocol, as well as the statements and prestige of the newly - elected head of the state. As I was saying, today is an important day, as we shall learn what way the rulers have chosen.

The confrontation taking place now gives as trophies two main positions: president of the Senate and president of the Chamber of Deputies. If the Alliance manages to get these positions, it means it has succeeded in using negotiations to reach majority. The next step would be the validation of Tariceanu's government and hence its power to promote ordinary laws, but not organic ones. But if the Alliance fails in winning these two Parliament leading positions, this will be like failing majority. In such case, Basescu will push things, as he is the prisoner of assignments, of his own views and maybe of the idea that his luck will not go away. He will come up with a project on minority government, led by Tariceanu as well. Such a government may be validated or not, depending on the wish of the majority.

We have been talking about political combinations, as well as about interest - based combinations. This is no accident at all. Political combinations are slippery and can never be subordinate to mathematics, not even when they lead to assignments. Just a few days ago UDMR and PUR were on one side, then they oscillated and now they look like being on a different side. Today they might change their minds too and give us a shock. Behind what seems real, behind political negotiations and good intentions - such as elaborating programs that the allies want - there are huge economical and financial interests. The TV game is not a confrontation of ideals, but simply struggle to seize power. Since this is the beginning of a new electoral decade, I have to warn my readers not to be taken in by the illusion of change. Capitalist spring has not arrived to Bucharest yet.

In case the Alliance wins, it will have to go through internal disputes. It would be a frail government, obeying the algorithm that would reach every corner of Romania. Such internal disputes will come about when the algorithm is to be put to practice. I am really afraid that the new Cabinet structure will also include controversial persons, involved in fishy business. There is already rumor on names that can lead to negative reactions from public opinion. What will follow will be huge pressure by PSD and PRM ("Great Romania" Party), as they can indeed make up tough Opposition, unless they break.

On Saturday Emil Boc was elected president of PD (the Democrat Party). PD adopted the wretched rule on unanimity in cheers and applause. Such rule originates in the deepest layer of totalitarian view on the state. I was seized with terror when I found out there had been no vote against Boc and no vote unexpressed. It is just impossible that one single congressman should have nothing against Boc. Maybe it was a single one, who kept silent and voted. This way he attracted the unanimity curse on himself. This was within the scope of PSD only till Friday. On Friday the party produced official communique against Ion Iliescu the father, which never happened before. Iliescu is going to strike back ant fight Nastase to get power. And there will be no unanimous winner. Not even if one or the other leaves PSD. Unless PSD breaks, Tariceanu's government will be left aside. But with one single condition: not to split with PRM. The extremist unanimity of this party is jeopardized by the eventual possible "populars."

We have to wait till tomorrow to go on with more hypotheses. Such hypotheses are closer and closer to what will follow. Today we are to know who betrays whom, who cheats on whom and who is loyal to whom.