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Current scenarios

Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"

As I am now writing this editorial, we don't know election results yet. We don't even know about the opinion polls accomplished by Metro Media Transylvania - Insomar and by CURS. And I haven't gone voting yet, but I will surely do it. On the other hand, the information included in this title and editorial simply relies on the analysis of the two electoral teams and therefore it can no longer influence election results in any way. Therefore I can be calm and inform ZIUA readers familiar with the Realitatea TV shows by Robert Turcescu that on Friday evening I wrote the winner's name on a piece of paper and handed it to the producer. This name was Adrian Nastase. I estimated that the latter would be president of Romania during the next 5 years and I am going to explain why.

The Romanian society has been highly focussed on two sides only and it had to elect one Socialist or the other. One of them represents the left centre wing, whereas the other is a right centre alliance representative. The main nucleuses of the two parties have mainly been represented by the electors of the two candidates running for presidency. But the real battle referred to the undecided voters. As for the second election tour, there were also the electors of the eliminated candidates. Among the latter, Corneliu Vadim Tudor had the largest number of supporters, followed by Marko Bela and Gigi Becali. Only if we take into account the about 22% we can notice that the winner will be any of the finalists managing to get two thirds. Before the first election tour, Nastase succeeded in attracting the largest number of voters who had not made up their mind yet. Why? Because when such a tight battle is in question, what is vital is not the message to the electors the candidate already has, but the messages to those parts of the electorate that seem to be less important. This is about categories like the Magyars, the students, the army, the national minorities, the retired, the state servants, the employees of national security and defence institutes or of local communities that can be attracted due to certain assignments. It means that the elaboration of electoral messages sent by various means effects from a highly sophisticated multidisciplinary scientific activity, carried out in the strategy laboratory of every candidate. It is just like the backside of a battlefield that can provide you or not with the munitions fit for victory, in due time and at highest standards. Such electoral laboratories have got two dimensions: the quality of specialists and consultants, as well as the quality of the information that can be systematically obtained in the shortest time possible and which refer to the political, economical, social and cultural expectations of the population they are after. This matter of information control also depends on the professional and moral features of various opinion poll institutes to which political parties appeal, as well as it depends on the money the candidates have invested.

What can we now notice, after studying the final and the electoral competition that has actually been on for one year and a half? The main flaw that affected both parliamentary and presidential elections is caused by the fact that market research has been almost absent, as the Alliance has been unable to promote a right - oriented, Liberal candidate. As for the second tour, there is also the psychological state of mind caused by the fact that D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance failed parliamentary elections. As for PSD (the Social - Liberal Party), ever since 2003 it has constantly carried out research on every district and on every category of population. We learn this after reading the three volumes of stenograms published by ZIUA Publishing House. And anyway PSD has also managed to get or even control opinion polls ordered by the Opposition. And as far as this is concerned, D.A. Alliance, that is PNL (the National Liberal Party) and PD (the Democrat Party), are much behind. Not even after the local elections have they tried to make up for the absence of such research, highly necessary for a professional election campaign. The consequence has been that Nastase's messages have accomplished mission, even if intellectuals have found them boring, dishonest or arrogant. But Basescu has relied too much on his charm, intuition and political animal instinct. I believe this is the main key we can use for studying election results, a key that would help us better understand why Basescu has committed several campaign errors than Nastase.

I have said who the winner will be. But it does not necessarily mean that Nastase is my favourite. As far as I am concerned, I think none of them meets requirements for ruling Romanian 5 years. But the fuss is just starting and I can now announce that the press will have a lot of work to do on both sides.