Externe

HH: Now the meme of the day or the week is that sectarian violence will overwhelm the civilian government, that the blowing up of the shrine is an impossible to absorb burden. Robert Kaplan on this program yesterday said with a civilian loss at 150 in the aftermath, that so is not an outbreak of sectarian violence of the scale that we're used to in the world, that he laughs at the idea. How say you?

VDH: I agree entirely with Robert, who I have a lot of respect for, because I think it'll have the opposite effect. I think it will really tell the Iraqi government it's time to quit quibbling over the spoils, appoint the ministers, and give the green light to this new army to get out into the field and start patrolling the streets. 50% of all patrols now are done by the Iraqis, and it's very rare for an American to go out on his own now on a patrol. They're either Iraqi patrols, or they're mixed patrols, or they're Americans embedded with Iraqis. And for example, the most newly formed division, General Bashar's 10th division, he himself is a Turkeman, and it's split between Shiia, Sunni and Kurds. And the myth is that not ever Iraqi is a Shiia or a Kurd or a Sunni. Some people have parents...a mother might be Sunni, a father Shiia. And it's not as triangulated as we seem to think. And from what I've understood about today's events in Iraq, that we didn't see the great civil war break out that everybody thought, that there was a sense of maturity and responsibility among the Iraqis. And they're looking toward the Iraqi security forces, which I think will rise to the occasion.

HH: You also noted in your article today the often forgotten fact that Saddam unleashed 100,000 criminals from the jails of Iraq just prior to the war, and that they remain a great part of the problem in Iraq.

VDH: I think that's really a fact that's been sorely overlooked. I had a long talk with a senior Bechtel engineer who finished his projects, finished them on time, on budget, and they were power substations. They did a wonderful job, and yet can't get the power, not because of the insurgency, but because of common looting, common theft, mayhem, murder in the streets, that stopped the critical links to his power stations. And I think we've got to remember that 100,000 criminals turned loose on the streets are behind a lot of the kidnapping for hire, bounties put on Westerners, and once we get the security police and the Army out there in numbers, I think we can have enough presence to curtail that. A lot of it's not even ideological. It's just criminality.

HH: Coming to a conclusion on this, Victor Davis Hanson, as you flew back, before you learned about the shrine bombing, do you think we'll stay the course? And if we do, how long until a stable and secure Iraq is promoting the very values that Bush has hoped it would do into the heart of the Middle East?

VDH: I think that by the end of 2007, we will have a Korea-like situation, where we have 40-50,000 Americans, very secure bases, who will be providing air support and training and backup to a completely Iraqi security situation. And we can turn this thing into something along the lines of Korea, which remember, would not be that much different in the Middle East, when Saddam was there. We still neede 50, 60 thousand people to use the no-fly zones. And that's what the military believes they can do.

HH: Last question for you, Victor Davis Hanson. You mentioned the commander of the American military in Iraq. And I sense some admiration on your part for these gentlemen.

VDH: I do. You know, Hugh, I spent 21 years in academia with PhD's, and I will tell you that an American colonel with a master's degree is usually better educated, brighter, more common sensical than the average academic. And their just...the colonels in the American military are very, very impressive, and there's nothing that you or I or any armchair general could think of that they have not thought of, and they're not trying out in Iraq. And General Casey and Chiarelli and Dempsey, they're just the best that America can produce. I came away that if we're going to lose this, it's not because we don't...we're not doing what is feasibly possible. We're going everything a person could do.

HH: And do you think we are going to lose it? Or win it?

VDH: No, I think we're going to win it, and I think that we're going to see dramatic results at the end of this year, 2006. And by 2007, like I said, it's going to be a situation like Korea, and that's going to be terrible for bin Laden, and the people in Iran and Syria.

HH: Victor Davis Hanson, thank you so much for taking some time on your recovery from the travel to spend with a first-hand report. We appreciate it very much. Thank you, Victor.

VDH: Thank you, Hugh.

End of interview.