As far as the chess table of Romanian politics is concerned, things are about to make crisis last forever. The anti-Basescu Coalition seems tempted to keep on hitting against the President, instead of choosing to suspend him, which is risky. Such chess positions are meant to save some time for change of positions. And therefore at the end of the party, I mean of the mandate, the Coalition will be consolidated and hope to succeed in imposing the rules of the game, without paying attention to the nagging coming from Cotroceni Palace. The split from Basescu seems to throw Tariceanu in the arms of Iliescu, Vadim and Voiculescu for good. As for Geoana's terms with this trio, he has got the noisy usher part to play. Since he can't withdraw, the PM has got to go on: get rid of the PD (Democrat Party) and announce the making of a Liberal minority government, with parliamentary support from the PSD (Social-Democrat Party), the PRM ("Greater Romania" Party) and the PC (Conservative Party). Of course Tariceanu will have to compromise so that the allies would gain power and image in exchange for the votes the government needs to have the Parliament pass the laws. And the PM will have to proceed to dangerous wire walking and to explain something to the Liberals' own electorate: how come that, after a vote meant to kick the PSD (and their ally, the PC) off and get the PRM isolated, he has packed his bags to join the enemy's side? As for suspending the President, it is seen as risky. Basescu is still relying on the vote of the popular majority and a referendum would fetch him triumphantly to Cotroceni Palace one more time. Thus consolidated, the head of state would even ask for the Parliament to dissolve, taking the Iorgovan theory in 1994. At that time, the 'daddy' of the intricate Constitutions elaborated after 1989 came up with the following view: if Iliescu, suspended by the President, got power again due to people's options expressed by means of referendum, the Parliament would have to be dissolved, because the MPs would be in conflict with the electors due to whose votes they had been appointed. But the main feature of the Coalition against Basescu, including the PNL (National Liberal Party), is the fear of vote. This fear effecting from the awareness of one's weakness is so great that even the elections for MEPs are about to be postponed until late this year, although scheduled for next May. This is why the initiative to suspend the President is standing all chances to get stuck in a commission. On the other hand, the President is despaired because of his powerlessness to make use of the force belonging to the electorate baking him. While trying to exit such a cage, the President is hopeful about getting some time to save himself. The uninominal vote referendum would be such an interval and the electorate would play for him. But I am afraid this is just a substitute cure. The Coalition can make use of delay by postponing the meeting when they are supposed to express the consultative vote or by postponing the referendum. (In case the PD is out of the government, the organization of referendum would no longer be the attribution of Vasile Blaga, a loyal servant of the Cotroceni leader.) Basescu has got one single solution left: resignation. Early presidential elections would certainly appoint him to Cotroceni Palace again. But this time they would also endow him with more authority, which would belittle some of the compromises on the rightwing. The price to be paid? A mandate lasting only two years and a half instead of the ten years he counted on. Unless he resigns, he will carry out a sterile mandate. He will have exhausted his popularity in vain, by getting involved in scandals that may have weakened his adversaries, but they haven't displaced them.

Adrian PATRUSCA