The image effects of President Basescu's political attack are difficult to estimate right now. The dismissal of the Romanian defense minister Teodor Atanasiu was the President's choice, after all. It is meant to prove that adversaries have got reasons to fear the President, despite the Constitution, which confers him few prerogatives. Of course Basescu could have decided not to suspend Atansiu, not to turn a political freak into a hero. After all, when he himself was at loggerheads with the PSD (Social-Democrat Party) and the criminal case plotted by his political opponents was getting significant, the prefect who ruled Bucharest at that time didn't dismiss him as general mayor, although the prefect had such legal means available. Secondly, the President's political move is unambiguous as far as the relations with the PNL (National Liberal Party) are concerned. It is now obvious that Traian Basescu is perceiving the PNL and its present officials as a first rank political enemy. The President is thus showing his determination to fight against this party all the way. The situation seems irreversible. This is why it is interesting to see how various politicians may handle it. Let's start with the President. He seemed to have reached a dead end after a rather long time of political failures coming from his several attempts to behave like a player, after being defeated by his own temper or by his unskilled staff and each time by the Constitution, a coat much too tight for him. His failures have made the representatives of the military, the secret services and the Prosecutor's Office think it over, as the latter institutions are the only ones on which he has got real authority. As known, all these institutions are headless right now. Therefore domestic battles for power are being fought, which is harming national interests. There is visible institutional instability in every of these three components. Even if it is not causing political instability, it obviously discredits the image of the one responsible for it, that is the President himself. The continuation of such a state shows Basescu is not powerful enough to place his favorites in available positions and this way seize the power of the secret services and the Prosecutor's Office. The military is now in the same boat too. Although perfectly legal and constitutional, the decision to get a high rank marine head the General Staff can but make things worse, since the marine is far from playing a part important enough in the Romanian military to have its representative take over. The apple of discord has now reached the Romanian military and it accompanies the dissatisfaction with the supreme commander. It is beyond all doubt that Basescu is at advantage, due to his risky and disputable decision to dismiss Atanasiu, for which he got some help from Eugen Bejenariu, "stimulated" by his friend Dorin Cucos. Basescu is at advantage simply because of showing his power and proving he has enough resources to take over and keep control. It is significant to those who have lately noticed the weaknesses in Cotroceni and used double language. After the Atanasiu case, they will become more cautious and reticent to hug Basescu's adversaries. Or maybe this has been just the first response. PNL has got to pick up the glove Basescu has thrown down. Tariceanu himself is caught in between. Reason and temper ask him for caution and balance, whereas the pressure inside is about to cause explosion and makes him have aggressive responses to the presidential offense. As the PNL has officially announced that Basescu is no longer representative of their party, denial is to be expected to follow. And the Democrat Party is being kept aside in the reserve line for this very reason. The PD will respond only after the Liberals have spent all their response resources. It is the psychological time when the PNL can lose all credibility or when their batteries can get reloaded. As for the Conservative Party, the scandal is welcome. Hope that they will manage to get enough signatures to suspend the President is growing in Voiculescu's party, whereas the Liberals' dissatisfaction is growing too. While the PSD and the PRM ("Great Romania" Party) are wise enough to wait and make use of the rulers' dispute, the UDMR (Democrat Union of Magyars in Romania) is fathoming. They want to use the weakness of Coalition partners in order to get their beloved law on minorities' status. This hot autumn when the President is jumping in the middle of the boxing ring, determined to start the final battle, is just beginning. We will be seeing much soap opera in presidential talk shows from now on.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu