An anti-Basescu coalition really exists, be it an offhand one. The President also knows it. Actually, he stated it before leaving for Washington. Except the Parliament, all the other political players oppose him an obstinate resistance regarding both the future set of laws on the national security and the appointment of the new heads of the secret services. In parallel, politicians from different parties have launched a real competition that has in view the suspension of the president. This is a procedure which, paradoxically, needs as many votes in the Parliament, as that of investing the heads of the SRI (Romanian Intelligence Service) and SIE (Foreign Intelligence Service). Still, the process does not end here. It seems it crossed the Atlantic, to reach the White House, too. Moreover, the other NATO partners do not stand folded arms either. On the eve of receiving Romania within the European Union, both foreign and domestic public opinion got inflamed given the paroxysm conflictual situations in Bucharest may reach. An institutional crisis relating to the unprecedented situation when, in times of peace, intelligence services and the General Parquet are simultaneously beheaded, it threatens to turn into a constitutional crisis, into a political one, at both internal and external level. Might we know, by now, who is going to be the winner, depending on the strengthen of participants in this battle? Under the circumstances when the political coalition against Basescu is only a circumstantial one, ephemeral and superficial, just like many of such understandings in Romania, we are likely to witness, by next spring, an issue. Either Basescu will be suspended from the position of a president, accused of having infringed constitutional provisions, or his adversaries from among the politicians and the Parliament will be defeated. By gathering their forces, the parties, except PD (the Democrat Party), have a chance to get a score of half plus one of the total number of MPs with the aim of suspending the president, while the president has, in turn, the chance the Constitutional Court has recently conferred him, to humiliate and kneel the political class, by addressing directly the population, by the means of a referendum. The breaking of the deadlock would be a miraculous one: that is to identify some secret service directors whom everybody would agree with. But if such a forefront stage conflict is to be reached, the chief of State may win, provided the population is on his side. That is why the essential is the diagnosis the Romanian citizen gives, by his/her vote, to the political saneness in Romania. That's an interesting subject, taking into account both the mass psychology and the nature and force of the messages addressed the population. I will come back on this matter another time. The fact is that, if there is a decisive round, as the characters announce, then either Basescu will change the rules of the game in his favour, or the others will do it and the chief of State is lost. During or following a rage crisis, real or simulated, generated by Omar Hayssam's disappearing, three heads of secret services have sent their resignations at Cotroceni. That's a sign this is the cause they had to give in. In the Parliament, the situation has been cleared as much as possible: the resignations were made under pressure and to the wrong place. The Cotroceni Palace had appointed none of them. The Parliament has competence over the SIE and SRI, while the intelligence department in the Ministry of Interior is under the Government's subordination. Given all these, Basescu allowed himself to write down on the resignation papers, and to sign them as well, that he agreed upon. That's a sign that either he does not know the provisions of the Constitution, or he ignores them. This launched an unprecedented reaction of the political class. It reverberated through a very tough answer the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies gave to the presidential ultimatum, by which Basescu had announced he would propose new heads for the intelligence services only after the package of laws on the national security would have been adopted. The national security set of laws is a kind of a draft, elaborated by one or several secret services, swallowed but not ruminated by the presidential institution, kept secretly, for over two months. It is only now this project is being on public debate. And because, according to the constitutional provisions, Cotroceni is not meant to have legislative initiative, the bomb with delayed explosion was slipped under the Government's table. In its turn, the Executive turned it upside down and showed the proposed package of laws placed the intelligent (sic!) services with their back against the citizen. Anyway, the Parliament still refuses to make the appointment of the new heads of SRI and SIE depending on the adoption of the package of laws. And it forces the President appoint his favourites right away. We lie into an institutional crisis for the time being. What happens if Basescu, refuses, in his turn? The crisis will turn into a constitutional one. The foreign countries also pay attention to this, with a little bit of irritation. That is because, according to the agreements with their Euro-Atlantic partners, the future directors shall be given a favourable notice. Bush's blunder, when he addressed Basescu with the title of Prime Minister, could have been a deliberate one. Many so-called blunders the chief of the American administration made are, in fact, deliberate gestures. Signs. Should he have transmitted Basescu the message that, according to the Romanian Constitution, the real power is not held by Cotroceni, but by the Government? We'll see. Anyway, the final will be played in Bucharest and not elsewhere.

Sorin Rosca Stanescu