I don't wish ill of the President. After he recuperates in Austria from a lengthy operation which is bound to have diminished his strength, I wish him a complete recovery. If necessary, he should take all the rest he needs so that he returns refreshed to his duties. His herniated disk arose at what is sure to be seen as one of the turning points of his presidency. Former allies were beginning to lose faith in him as a locomotive of reform due to his uncertain handling of sensitive issues relating to national security and also the communist past. Populists ready to exploit the frustrations of citizens facing unending poverty as Romania draws closer to the EU, rise in public esteem. In a moment of reflection, Train Basescu says he regrets having appointed Calin P. Tariceanu to head his government. But if someone more amenable, even Theodor Stolojan, had been appointed, could serious discord have been prevented between the two palaces? The constitution ensures rivalry between the two top office-holders in different policy areas. An Alliance without a stable majority, relying on treacherous smaller parties, and required to impose its will on rebellious interest groups whose greed and disregard of the law has put at risk Romania joining the EU, was bound to face massive difficulties. The reform constituency which many hoped Basescu would be a catalyst for, instead appears to be fragmenting. One hopes the President has been giving a lot of though about how to revive it. Without promoting changes that enable the people to be properly represented by their politicians, then his Presidency will be a colourful but ultimately sad interlude in the story of Romania. This week the EU has indicated its concerns with the failings of Parliament and the chronic inefficiency of much of the state administration. Unless these problems are rectified, it is clear that Romania is going to grow weaker not stronger inside the EU. It will lose billions in funds meant to carry out urgent modernisation. Foreign multi-national firms will tighten their grip on all levels of economic activity. This will prevent domestic entrepreneurs interested in making and selling things that people want, not speculating or enjoying a parasitic relationship with the state, from moving forward. It will even threaten their survival and if this happens the tax revenue will suffer and Romanians who would have stayed at home to contribute to national recovery and raise a family will instead flee abroad. Romania's viability will be threatened even as opportunities for breaking out of 70 years of isolation and under-development present themselves. One thing is sure: if in the rest of 2006, Cotroceni's eyes are focussed on driving its rivals from power and preparing for new elections, these urgent tasks will not get done. Paralysis in some ministries and infighting between others will bring the pace of reform to a standstill except in the justice and interior ministries. Looking around his Viennese hospital, I hope that the conclusion Mr Basescu has reached is that by the end of his Presidency similar standards of health care should begin to be normal in Romania. This is surely not a utopian thought. Romanian doctors, nurses, and other health-care workers are often esteemed in the rest of Europe. In northern Italy, earlier this year, I saw that the recruitment of Romanian child care staff was turning into a major industry there. It is essential to reduce the runaway corruption in the lower levels of the health sector. Transparency International in its 2006 report indicated it was still out of control, producing misery for huge numbers of people. It is not good enough to urge citizens not to pay bribes, as the President did last autumn, and then expect the problem to go away. There are examples of good practice in the medical world, in unlikely places such as Zalau, which need to be replicated elsewhere. If the President has been thinking of how to vanquish his rivals and not of slaying these bigger dragons, the country will continue to drift. It is likely that someone who genuinely wants change but doesn't seem to know how to bring it about, will grow more despondent despite his outward bonhomie, which will do his state of health no good. Meanwhile, the best Romanians will continue to leave in ever-growing numbers. This signifies that Romania and the EU will be a story of accession without reform. I am sure that if Traian Basescu was 30 years younger, he would be one of those who would be leaving. He would be attracted by the opportunities to get ahead rather than staying at home and trying to survive an irrational system of controls and regulations which produces a silent state of war between ordinary Romanians and the state. Will that war still be raging by the time he finally leaves Cotroceni?

Tom Gallagher