Fitch Ratings Fiscal Evaluation Agency reaffirmed grades for Romania yesterday, warning that Romanian economy was overheating: the increase of current account deficit and excessive liquidity, says Mediafax. Press release from the above-mentioned agency says the rating of long-term currency debts has been confirmed to "BBB minus" and the rating of national currency debts has been conferred to "BBB". (...)
Fitch Agency expert Nick Eisinger explained: "The low investment risk rate for Romania is still justified, but authorities are being confronted with some difficulties related to the country's successful story. Economy seems to have many of the classical symptoms of overheating, especially the significant growth of current account deficit, triggered by the rapid improvement of credits and national currency appreciation."
Authorities can afford to make no more big mistakes
He explained that the state of public finance was one more positive element, as the budget deficit was still low, just as public debt. On the other hand, authorities have to find solution to budget income, the lowest of all EU states and candidates, as the cut of expenses leading to such results does not seem sustainable. Fitch has it that the growth of current account deficit needs to be close watched, although it is no reason for panic. Direct foreign investments have greatly contributed to foreign financing this year and they might increase more in 2006, as the most important privatization transaction progress. As most of the credits are short-term ones, the current account and the exchange rate become more vulnerable to changes in global liquidity, so that authorities can afford to make no more big mistakes.
According to Fitch, future revision of grades for Romanian economy depends on the decrease of the current account deficit, the consolidation of foreign finance sources (foreign investments and clearer chances to join the EU), as well as on clear evidence of efficient control on inflation and of a medium-term, sustainable fiscal policy. (A.G.C.)