- It takes a very close look at the results of the recent elections in the German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia to find among the list of "Others" the tally for "The Greys": they got 0.1% of the vote. In other words, one in a thousand voted for them, although they claimed to speak for that state's retired and elderly people - over 30% of the population. "Generation consciousness," unlike the "class consciousness" of old, is obviously not a defining factor in people's political preferences. Many more "Greys" voted for the Greens than for their "own" party. This is an important fact. Most Europeans - and many in other parts of the world - live in rapidly aging societies. Nurseries and schools are closed while retirement homes and hospices spring up everywhere. Rising life expectancy coupled with low birth rates shape the demography of almost all prosperous countries. By the middle of the century - unless there is a dramatic turnaround - about half the population will be economically inactive for reasons of age. This trend will have many consequences, most obviously for the welfare state, notably pensions and healthcare. While expenditure for both is rising rapidly, the offsetting revenues are coming from ever fewer people in employment. As a result, the "generational contract" looks less and less viable, because we can no longer rely on today's workers to pay for today's pensioners. Insurance-based systems of entitlements created by personal contributions are increasingly taking the place of national health and pension services. This is a profound change that creates much friction in the transitional phase. For example, the transitional phase is a period in which public debt inevitably increases. Governments must continue to pay benefits to today's pensioners, and they can do so only by borrowing money to replace the revenues that tomorrow's pensioners are now diverting to personal insurance schemes. Debt, however, is a burden imposed by current citizens on future generations. Understandably, there are signs that younger politicians of all parties are resisting this development. Indeed, a party of the young might well have better prospects than the "Greys." Shifting political interests are, however, but one part of the changes in an aging society. More visible are changes in lifestyle. People who live longer while not being in employment want to enjoy their lives. A plethora of magazines tell pensioners what they can do. Advice ranges from sex in old age to tourism. Tourism, in particular - cruises as well as more adventurous trips - has become a favorite pastime for the elderly. At the same time, images of life in our own societies are shifting. No one is surprised to see grey-haired people dancing and singing and petting. For many of them, life seems to become an almost permanent holiday. To be sure, the impression is deceptive. Old people who have families are often found in a new role as educators of the young. While their sons and daughters go to work, they become the real parents of the next generation. Today's young children often see more of their grandmother than of their mother. One may well wonder what this means in terms of social values. The impression of a generation on permanent holiday is deceptive in another respect. Much public debate is devoted to child poverty and how to relieve it. However, there is at least as much old-age poverty. The point is that it is less visible. Occasionally, newspapers report that an old person has been found dead after days, having suffered a lonely demise from illness or even starvation. For the most part, old-age poverty is hidden, often by the victims themselves, who are too proud to talk about their condition. This is in part the explanation for the failure of the "Greys," that is, of political groups catering to the interests of the elderly. While such interests do exist, they do not lead older people to close ranks and organize themselves. If they are poor or otherwise disadvantaged, they are most likely to regard this as their personal, almost private destiny. Like the unemployed, they do not want a political party devoted to their plight. Beyond that, the key feature of an aging society is the independence of the elderly. Their vote is precisely not an expression of group interest. They make up their own minds and contribute to the unpredictability of modern elections. In that sense, too, an aging society adds to the responsibilities of the young. Ralf Dahrendorf, author of numerous acclaimed books and a former European Commissioner from Germany, is a member of the British House of Lords, a former Rector of the London School of Economics, and a former Warden of St. Antony's College, Oxford. Ralf Dahrendorf, author of numerous acclaimed books and a former European Commissioner from Germany, is a member of the British House of Lords, a former Rector of the London School of Economics, and a former Warden of St. Antony's College, Oxford. Copyright: Project Syndicate/Institute for Human Sciences, 2005. www.project-syndicate.org

by Ralf Dahrendorf