Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"   Basescu's firmness has changed the fragile relation of forces. The Alliance managed to make up majority, as well as small coalition and is now going to set government. But PSD (the Social - Democrat Party) is still calm and proves solidarity, showing they still have got enough munitions and are up to something. The battle is not over yet. D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance is also rather calm, although it lost the president positions on the two Parliament chambers and is aware that every law will pass with difficulty or will not pass at all. The reasons for both these attitudes might consist in the means PSD and D.A. Alliance have got to prevent each other's initiatives. Most of these means are of legislative nature and they can lead to instability and even chaos. An advantage that D.A. Alliance can make use of is to have their government issue a series of emergency ordinances in a speedy manner so that it would drive PSD crazy. And the latter might get exhausted trying to overturn them. D.A. Alliance is also relying on the extreme procedure of responsibility taking. According to article 114 in the new Constitution, the latter no longer sets limits to such a law-making instrument. Taking the responsibility to promote an organic law will be able to make any hostile MPs kneel every time by means of imposing a minority government and by using early elections for blackmail, since MPs want no such thing as early elections. Right now the Alliance is also glad when thinking that it will have a government by the end of the year. In fact, it will have a government starting with Monday and by emergency ordinance it will be able to impose single tax rate of 16%. This would be something of a killing blow for PSD, since even before elections were over, the latter had been so careful to get the budget for 2005 through the Parliament. They had conceived their own view on the budget, which obviously lacks this single tax rate, most vehemently opposed to especially by Iliescu's group. Therefore from January 1 on this tax rate will have effects to prove the measure irreversible. We would be supposed to start 2005 by using the budget on 2004, until voting for a new law that would correct the already adopted budget for 2005. I hope the reader won't get a headache trying to make out such procedures. And top of the cake is the advantage that president Traian Basescu can use to overthrow all parliamentary initiatives by PSD and refuse to promote the laws initiated by this party. But now let me show you why PSD is clam. In case the government tries to issue emergency ordinances, then D.A. Alliance must learn that PSD and PRM ("Great Romania" Party), taking advantage of absent or ally MP's in the small coalition, can annul any ordinance, the single tax rate included, within 6-10 days. They just need 2-3 days for the Chamber of Deputies, 2-3 days for the Senate and if necessary 2-3 days for the mediation commission. This way we can conclude that what the government would make today could be undone by the Parliament a few days later. And the play of whims goes on. Excessive use of the taking - responsibility procedure can make the government collapse anytime. At a certain moment, when PSD and PRM want it, such an effect can be real. And we would start all over again with one more attempt to make a different Executive. The single tax rate of 16% can be set. But the Parliament of such frail majority, made up of people used to obey rules, might just refuse to adopt the law project to change the budget on 2005 and this way in 2005 we might use the budget we have had in 2004. The latter was not right center - oriented, anyway. What kind of government is that using the enemy's budget? The head of the state is allowed to refuse law promotion once for every law. Afterwards the normative document gets promoted automatically, without Basescu's signature. So both the small coalition and the Opposition have got advantages in terms of legislative power and means to prevent the other's plans. This might lead to instability and legislative chaos.

Sorin ROSCA STANESCU