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  Nr. 3179 de marti, 23 noiembrie 2004 
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Current scenarios
Both Ciuhandu and PNTCD?
Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories"
This dilemma is expressed more and more often, either in the open or privately. Even some outstanding press representatives have stated temptation to vote for the president of PNTCD (the National Christian - Democrat Party) in the presidential elections. But opinion polls show he can't win. But there is a second election tour and the vote is not wasted, as it will go to Traian Basescu or Adrian Nastase. On the other hand, the same people have the right to still meditate on whom will they vote for, as far as parties are concerned. This is not necessarily because they are not supported of Christian democracy. The reason is another one. And we'd better put it honestly and bluntly. The same opinion polls show PNTCD has too very little voters. They are not enough to bring the party to the Parliament, that is to make it reach 5%. Therefore those who would not give their vote are dismayed and wonder if their option does not get wasted away. Redistribution among parliamentary party is one thing and the right to make your own choice is another. The dilemma also goes for the supporters of other small parties one can get out of just by sacrifice.
I have written before about real state of things in Parliament elections. I have promised to take this up again, depending on opinion poll results. There are two types of opinion polls. There are some which their beneficiaries, that is parties most of the times, believe they should be partially released. This happens more and more rarely, as we are drawing near he decisive moment. It is explainable why the secret was kept. Such opinion polls function as origin of strategies. The second category is represented by opinion polls that are not published, but are not and cannot be kept secret. And this way some other political analysts and me have got rather much convincing information of this kind, provided by different institutes and ordered by different political forces. What is the effect of it? What I guessed it would happen indeed happened: the electorate focused on the two main political forces diminishes the chances of smaller parties and not only. Maybe the restrictions set by BEC (the central Electoral Office) have emphasised the phenomenon, but allowed smaller parties to participate, on rather difficult conditions. But no matter the cause, here is the effect: there are about 20 small parties that will not make it to the Parliament and the votes given by their electors will get redistributed. The opinion I am going to express is not be to be interpreted as offence to small parties or as attempt to deny their legitimate existence and right to express, as well as their struggle for power.
At the end of last week we published an opinion poll accomplished by two institutes. Today we are publishing another one. I don't even want any more to appeal to market research I have run into, although it has not been released. It is beyond doubt that the few days left are enough for some political group to make huge progress, to make somersaults and turn 1% into 5%. Not even the competition among these Lilliputians matters any longer, it is significant for what will happen four years later. Candidates to presidency can still participate in confrontation. But they should honestly tell the electors they represent that that the battle for parties is lost for the time being. People would then feel free to vote for the eligible group they prefer.
Before completing this editorial, I can't help coming back to parliamentary parties and mentioning PRM ("Great Romania" Party) is in regress that the difference between D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance and PSD (the Social - Democrat Party)+PUR (the Romanian Humanist Party) is making slight progress to the latter's advantage. Nastase seems to be the first to reach the second tour. Vadim is acting like desperate towards his both opponents, in order to deliver them his electorate in the second tour, in exchange to under table advantages. It is the votes expressed by PRM adepts were some bone to be moved to and fro. And at last it is interesting that Basescu is so firm and states PD (the Democrat Party) is not going to join PSD or any larger alliance and prefers to stay in the Opposition. Does he know something, by any chance? Maybe the future opinion poll will answer this question.
Sorin ROSCA STANESCU 
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