Motto: "Before becoming history and even before taking place, a lot of major events are prepared in laboratories" November 28 elections are not history yet. Still, here we are talking about anticipated elections already. In fact, this points at the electorate's traumas. Yesterday in my editorial I was thinking about a sensible, lucid vote that now, in 2004, might replace the sentimental or emotional one we are used to. But sensible vote implies wide knowledge on the political reality and also anticipation of the election game results. In case the debates taking place these days do not change vote distribution shown by opinion polls dramatically, the greatest chances are at bay. Just as I was showing, neither D.A. ("Truth and Justice") Alliance nor PSD (The Social - Democrat Party) might not manage to reach Parliament majority. Obviously, this goes except for a poisoned alliance with PRM ("Great Romania" Party), with disastrous consequences at national and international level. Anticipated elections might be triggered by the refusal of the two political forces to make up minority governments. They can also be caused by the Parliament's rejection to reject such governments or even by the impossibility to rule afterwards, not even with the chance that the Parliament might adopt ordinary laws. Will they put up with the unavoidable? Or will they look for solutions after elections, depending on the results? What solutions can there be found? Let us study each possibility. If D.A. Alliance wins, the only way it can reach majority without joining PRM is alliance with either PUR (The Romanian Humanist Party) and UDMR (the Democrat Union of Hungarians in Romania) or with PSD. The first hypothesis would imply that PUR MPs who made it to the PSD lists should leave this party and join the winner so that PUR would get to rule. The second hypothesis seems to be at disadvantage: As known, the electoral campaign has deepened the harsh conflict between D.A. Alliance and PSD. But is this a real conflict or is it just the one declared? If we give it a sensible thought, we can see that the policies promoted by the two forces have more similarities than differences. And in case we talk about irreconcilable, conflict, it only refers to the two leaders Basescu and Nastase. It is just that the presidential campaign results will practically throw out one of them and bring him to rule the country. If Basescu or Nastase leaves the party, this will open a new way to a national union government. As for the second possibility, in case PSD+PUR wins elections, but fail in reaching government majority, we can take a look at the opposite side and see the existence of D.A. Alliance becomes pointless. Its exclusive aim was to promote a president in order to maximize chances and to get the poll enabling the alliance to rule. When elections are over, in one way or the other such objectives will have been exhausted. Unless D.A. Alliance wins, it might get dissolved with no difficulty. In such case, PSD needs may join either PNL or PD in order to reach majority. We must highlight once more that alliance with PD is achievable, if Nastase or Basescu make it to Cotroceni. It is to be noticed that PSD has got the widest range of combinations available for future ruling, with or without excluding PRM. We are supposed to have knowledge on these possible scenarios when we go voting. We are not to treasure too much the way politicians exhibit their muscles during campaign. At present we can't find parties or too many leaders ready to state they are thinking about future alliances. This would be counter productive, as far as the strive for votes is concerned. But everything will change just one day after elections. Political forces will invoke national interest. Leaders will say that politics is the art of compromise. Civil society representatives will state that the most insignificant evil must be chosen and so on. In fact, we shall face reverse logic. And our next four years will probably be shaped by alliance rules, not by the principle that has been set now, that of no alliance for ruling. I am emphasizing once again that the above - stated rationale is valid only if no spectacular overturning come about these days. What might lead to such thing? Only the presidential campaign, that is either brilliant or disastrous statements made by the two main candidates. They can bring more or less votes to their parties. Let's keep an eye the messages released by the two candidates running for presidency and let's supervise their mistakes and also sanction them by voting sensibly, not sentimentally.

Sorin ROSCA STANESCU